We're NOT Doomed: Jan 15, 2025
In 2010 there was a California ballot measure that didn’t get a whole lot of fanfair. It was Prop 14 and the language was complicated. The ballot measure would bring the jungle primary system in California.
The supporting argument was that it would give an independent candidate a better chance of winning a state level election. it was supported by current, at the time, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and his LT, and opposed by basically everyone else. It was a midterm so it mattered who voted. Supporters voted, opposition didn’t, and and so was born the California jungle primary system with 53% of the vote.
For the record, jungle primaries DO NOT help an independent candidate win, instead, they make the primaries the general election, while the general becomes a runoff.
A jungle primary means that every candidate runs together. There’s no party primary to determine who goes to the general, it’s just the top two vote getters.
That means that it doesn’t matter how blue California is (and it’s not nearly as blue as you think). Rather, it matters how many candidates are vying for the same voter base.
And this is why the current candidate list for Governor scares the living shit out of me.
In 2024, Kamala Harris won California by 58%, while Trump got 38%. This is a midterm primary so we’re likely not looking at these numbers, but let’s just say we are.
There are two viable Republicans, so that 38% will be split two ways, give or take, 16% per. There are 7, give or take Dems who, as of right now COULD be viable, depending on how the next few months go. If those were to be split evenly, each Dem would get 8%, now they won’t be, but 8% is a long way off from 16% regardless.
So let’s say one Dem does pull away from the pack, but not by THAT much, we could STILL be looking at a situation where those two Republicans get the most votes, cause the Dem votes are that split.
And with AG Rob Bonta apparently rethinking his decision not to run, that would be worse.
And again, we’re not looking at these numbers, this is a midterm primary, so it’s mostly just about who shows up.
We cannot have that many Dems, We need people to drop out, and Democratic voters need to really get serious and not vote for their favorite candidate who has no chance of winning.
This is also why most of the elections we have not overperformed in this year were in legislative seats in California. They were red districts, two Republicans ran and two Dems. A Dem would have easily gotten to the general if only one Dem had been running, but instead, it was two Republicans most of the time. And the district stayed red.
It sucks, but with this system, primaries have significant consequences and we can’t play around cause our “perfect” candidate might be running.
As far as the gubernatorial races goes, hopefully, a bunch of Dems and Dem adjacent people drop out before the filing period ends in early March, and this will just have been a cute post explaining why we need to get rid of the jungle primary system. Otherwise, we need to collectively chose 2 candidates who get the majority of the Dem vote in June and then hopefully there won’t even be a Republican in the general election.
Let’s not make the same mistake the country made in 2024. You might not love the most viable Dem candidate, but I PROMISE you, any Republican governor, right now, would be a catastrophe.
Please be smart, and let’s start working to get rid of the jungle primary system, so my heart doesn’t have to me in my throat for every primary election.
And now that we’ve got that conversation out of the way, here are some things to remind you that We’re NOT Doomed.
Los Angeles, California
Tues, Jan 13 - LA city council is a know shit show, but good things are happening at county level. LA County Board of Supervisors Chair, Hilda Solis and Lindsay Horvath got unanimous approval to come up with a list of county owned and controlled properties to become “ICE-free zones.” Over the next 30 days they will draft a list and bring it back to the full board for approval.
Supervisor Horvath said:
Across this country, civil immigration enforcement has too often turned deadly, and that fear follows people into parks, clinics, and public buildings. When residents are scared to seek care or show up in public spaces, something is deeply wrong. We may not control federal enforcement everywhere, but we do control our own property. That is why we are taking action to ensure our public spaces remain safe, accessible, and free from fear.
While chair Solis said:
Our communities continue to navigate uncertainty, danger, and trauma as the Trump administration’s immigration raids target Angeleno families. As actions escalate across the country, here in Los Angeles County, we remain committed to exploring every option available to safeguard our communities. Fear, danger, and recklessness have no place here.
First, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the power of voting. These members were elected. If enough Dems hadn’t voted, maybe there would be Republicans in their place (not all of LA county is blue). Every vote at every single level matters.
Second, as long as electeds like Supervisors Solis and Horvath exist, We’re NOT Doomed. There is always a way to fight to make things better, maybe not ideal, but better. Never forget that.
Washington and Oregon
Fri, Jan 9 - Remember the Trump executive order that attempted to make the SAVE Act law whether we liked it or not? Biden appointee, Judge John Chun permanently blocked it in Washington and Oregon.
In his conclusion he states:
Unless, and until, Congress amends these statutes or otherwise enacts a law that establishes a national ballot-receipt deadline of Election Day, the Elections Clause authorizes Washington and Oregon to maintain their existing laws, which permit the counting of certain ballots received after Election Day.
Basically Washington and Oregon conduct all elections by mail, so Trump trying to mess with mail elections effects them more than other states. And while Dem AGs across the country filed a lawsuit, Washington and Oregon filed on separately for their special circumstances.
Oregon’s Secretary of State, Tobias Read released a celebratory statement saying:
The Trump administration attacked American elections with an illegal executive order. Today, we put a stop to that nonsense. This is a win for the Constitution and the American people. Presidents don't get to rig elections. Period.
This is an especially important win after today when everyone has been talking about Trump saying we shouldn’t have elections anymore (which is just him talking not an actual action he can or will take). We keep winning in court, and an election win is so vital right now.
This isn’t over by any means, Republicans are going to keep trying to hinder how Oregon and Washington conduct elections, but this is a much needed win to feel less doomed.
Oslo, Norway
Fri, Jan 9 - The Nobel Peace Prize institute is making it very clear that you cannot transfer the Peace Prize to a different recipient. This means, no matter how much Trump wants it or Maria Corina Machado might want to give it to him, it’s not possible.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee and the Norwegian Nobel Institute receive a number of requests for comments regarding the permanence of a Nobel Peace Prize laureate’s status. The facts are clear and well established. Once a Nobel Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others. The decision is final and stands for all time.
They’re not messing around. And sure you could say that that’s the rules, but a lot of people, institutions and organizations are breaking long standing rules for Trump, so yes, the fact that they’re not is a big deal. It is an example of holding the line, even though it shouldn’t be.
And that makes me feel less Doomed.
So I hope these stories make you feel less Doom and your able to let that deep breath out you’ve been holding all day.
And always remember, our voices are our superpower, but only when we use them!